Indications are that world cereal production may
decline by 1.5 per cent from what it
was last year due mainly to the reduced
acreage planted with maize, even though the effect will be mitigated by "exceptionally
high" levels of existing stocks, according to the latest forecasts in
FAO's biannual Food Report published May 7, 2015, reports NaijaAgroNet.
FAO's
first forecast for global cereal production in 2015, assuming normal weather
conditions for the remainder of the season, amounts to 2.509 billion tonnes, a
bit down from last year's record but nearly 5 per cent above the average of the
past five years.
The
report, NaijaAgroNet further gathered,
stated that the modest decline in output would require running inventories down
by around 3 per cent in the new season (2015/16), with faster drawdowns for
coarse grains and rice than for wheat
"The
world food import bill is forecast to reach a five-year low in 2015", the
report say, mainly driven by a decline in international prices, low freight
rates and a strong US dollar. Import volumes of the various food components of
the bill were little changed or even rising. Low income countries are also
expected to benefit from lower import bills.
Several
years of solid harvests and stockpiling mean most basic food commodities are in
surplus. As a result, the projected drop in cereals output is not expected to
impact availability of food for consumption.
Dairy
production trends are poised for further steady growth of around two percent in
2015, with lower international prices buoying imports in Africa. The abolition
of the European Union's milk quota system is likely to boost output and was one
of the main drivers of the 6.7 percent monthly drop in the Dairy Price Index, NaijaAgroNet learnt.
Cyriacus Nnaji/ ED,OPs
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