Outlook for cereals output improves slightly

NaijaAgroNet:

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, has raised the forecast for world cereal production in 2016 slightly to nearly 2,526 million tonnes, reports NaijaAgroNet.

This figure, NaijaAgroNet notes is virtually the same as in 2015 and potentially on course to be the second-largest global harvest ever.

According to FAO, the larger figure results almost entirely from improved prospects for wheat production, as winter weather conditions have been favourable for prospective yields in the European Union, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

“At 717 million tonnes, the 2016 wheat output forecast remains 16 million tonnes short of last year's record,” experts at FAO said.

The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief made available to NaijaAgroNet, FAO says new production forecast for global coarse grains including barley, maize, millet, oats, rye and sorghum stands at 1,314 million tonnes, about one per cent below the 2015 output.

FAO, NaijaAgroNet gathered, left unchanged its worldwide rice production forecast at 495 million tonnes, about one per cent higher than the previous year, although the full impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon will not be clear for a few more months.

“World cereal utilization in the season ahead is expected to rise by only 1.1 percent due to slower growth in the use of cereals - especially wheat and barley - as livestock feed,” FAO said.

As a result, the world body also said that cereal stocks are likely to drop by 3.3 per cent or 21 million tonnes over the course of the new season, while stocks are forecast to drop most in Brazil, Thailand, India, China, Morocco, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Argentina and South Africa.

As said by FAO world trade in cereals is expected to decline slightly to 367 million tonnes with sharp drops in China's imports of barley and sorghum as well as EU imports of maize, more than offsetting soaring imports of maize by drought-stricken countries in southern Africa.

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Somalia may slide back to food insecurity – FAO warns

Irrigated crops make Somali farmers more resilient.

Head of operations at the Food and Agricultural Organization (FOA) in Somalia, Luca Alinovi has sounded a warning that the country may slide back into food crisis, if present initiative towards food security is disengaged.

“By designing and executing a build-back-better process,” Luca said affected Somalia communities had get back on their feet in months but the danger is that the initiatives should be sustained in order to ensure full recovery from drought.

The eastern Africa republic is still at the verge of drought as the situations remains critical, hence, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization affirmed that continued aid is vital.

NaijaAgroNet recalls that the United Nations made a declaration last year July about the state of famine in Somalia which caused thousands of deaths and call for a massive humanitarian aid programme in a bid to preserve food security in the affected areas.

One of FAO’s latest forecasts also warns of reduced rains in the year which will lead to a below-average to poor harvest in some parts of the south which include the major sorghum-producing region, and deterioration of food security situation.

Aid strategy by the UN agency was designed to help farmers and herders to build long-term resilience to drought and other emergencies in regions plagued by recurrent droughts.

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Food price index falls for the third consecutive month

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) Food Price Index, has declared the fall of food price index for the third consecutive month in the last six months.

FAO in its monthly assessment and analysis of prices of 55 food commodities indicated a drop of 1.8 per cent from 205 points in May, thereby dropping in three consecutive months from April 2012.

NaijaAgroNet recalls that a four-point drop in June brought the index to 201 points from a revised level of 205 points in May 2012; hence the index now stands at 15.4 per cent below its peak in February 2011.

A press statement made available to NaijaAgroNet, FAO affirmed that the average prices of all commodity groups in the index were below May levels, with oils and fats recording the largest drop.

The United Nations' agency attributed the continuous drop in food price index to the continuous economic uncertainties. That adequate food supply prospects kept the index down although growing concerns over dry weather sent prices of some crops higher toward the end of the month.

NaijaAgroNet learnt that prices of food commodities have started rising again recently as a result of adverse weather and this may affect the rebound of the food price index in July.

FAO’s new production forecast for world cereal production in 2012 stands at 2 396 million tonnes, still a record level and against the previous forecast of 2,327 million tones.

Assessment by FAO also shows an adequate supply and demand situation in 2012/13 season which is traceable to the abundant supplies of rice as well as sufficient exportable supplies of wheat and coarse grains.

But grain prices were very volatile in June due to continuing dryness and above-average temperatures in most of the major maize growing regions of the United States. Adverse weather is diminishing prospects of an improvement in the maize supply situation and FAO is monitoring the development closely.

Commenting on the June Food Price Index, FAO Director-General José Graziano da Silva said the agency has been actively involved in studying food price volatility and identifying appropriate policy responses.

“Our analytical work is helping to deepen the understanding of the nature, causes and impacts of volatility and of what governments and other stakeholders can do about it,” da Silva asserted.

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Global food prices drop by four per cent in May

A woman removing straw from rice with a broom in 

Kamangu, Democratic Republic of Congo.

The global food prices have dropped sharply to four per cent in May as a result of the generally favourable supplies and strengthening of the United States (US) dollar.

The May edition of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisaiton Food (FAO) Price Index shows a sharp drop in international prices of food commodities by four per cent.

FAO informed NaijaAgroNet in a press statement that May food prices dropped to 204 points from 213, which is, 9 points down from April and the lowest level since September 2011; about 14 per cent below its peak in February 2011.

Abdolreza Abbassian, a grain analyst at FAO said crop prices have come down sharply from their peak level but still remain high and vulnerable due to risks related to weather conditions in the critical growing months ahead.

FAO's latest forecast for world cereal production in 2012 stands at a record level of 2.4 billion tonnes, 3.2 per cent higher than 2011 record.

A higher percentage of the increase, NaijaAgroNet gathered is expected to originate mainly from maize in the United States amid an early start of the planting season and prevailing favourable growing conditions.

However, with planting still to be completed and much of the crop at very early stages of development, the final outcome will depend greatly on weather conditions in the coming months.

The forecast of global rice production in 2012 is firmer and points to a 2.2 percent increase from 2011, to some 490 million tonnes, mostly reflecting larger plantings in Asia.

For wheat, latest indications point to a contraction of about 3 per cent in production in 2012, to 680 million tonnes, still well above the average of the past five years.

The global cereal utilization is predicted to expand by at least two per cent in 2012-2013 season; to 2 376 million tonnes, with feed utilization growing by 3.8 per cent, while food consumption is expected to increase by just over 1 per cent, thereby largely keeping pace with world population growth.

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